India faces multiple and complex threats and challenges to its security from the land, sea and air. This situation has led to new power equations throughout the world and in the country’s immediate neighbourhood.

The hope that the end of the Cold War era would bring into being a multipolar world order has greatly diminished. Instead, the pre-eminence of the USA in political, economic, military and technological fields is more in evidence today than ever before. Its capabilities to forge coalitions and alliances on any issue is unmatched. This has resulted in increasing concerns in countries like Russia and China and, to some extent, in Europe. US pre-eminence in the global strategic architecture is unlikely to diminish in the foreseeable future. Meaningful, broad-based engagement with the United States spanning political, economic and technological interests and commonalities will impact beneficially on India’s external security concerns with a resultant, albeit less visible, impact on the country’s internal security environment. Conversely, an adverse relationship with that state can have significant negative repercussions across the same broad range of issues and concerns.

Despite the end of the cold war, nuclear weapons continue to be ligitimised by treaties like the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). US, European, Russian and other doctrines stress the value of nuclear weapons in national and collective defence strategies. The continuous proliferation of nuclear weapons and missiles in India’s neighbourhood and in particular, in Pakistan, poses a major threat to our security.

The nuclear tests by India and Pakistan in May 1998 altered India’s security environment in fundamental ways.

The new strategic environment will be affected by technological developments in a more fundamental manner than ever before. Although technology has been a harbinger of change throughout history, the sheer scope and pace of current technological change is unprecedented. The revolution in information technology which is sweeping the world has deepened the process of globalisation. The role of the media in creating, shaping and changing perceptions will continue to expand. In the military sector, the technology-driven information warfare and the revolution in military affairs (RMA) will have a dramatic impact in the coming decades. Developments in communications and space technologies are shaping everyday life and economy in a far more fundamental fashion than is ordinarily realised.

Notwithstanding the deterrence provided by India’s nuclear tests, the possibility of a conventional war between two nuclear powered states cannot be ruled out. This was amply demonstrated by the Kargil war of 1999. The battlefield of the future, however, will be vastly different from the past. It would be non-linear in nature with real time survelliance, integrated command, control, communications, computer, intelligence and information assets, target acquisition and highly lethal precision weapon systems.

In essence, the future battlefield, in the country’s context is likely to be more digitised and transparent and would experience an exponential increase in the deployment of electronic devices, signalling the growing primacy of the electromagnetic spectrum. The future conflicts would be dominated by a wide variety of platforms and delivery systems with increased ranges and accuracy, as well as terminally-guided and precision-guided munitions.

Thus, while India needs to ensure credible nuclear deterrence to prevent the possibility of a nuclear misadventure by its potential adversaries, it has to simultaneously maintain adequate and duly modernised conventional forces which are properly managed, led and equipped to take advantage of the RMA and which can take care of any possible conventional conflicts.

While instances of inter-state wars have significantly declined and are expected to continue to do so, there is an increase in cross-border interference by one state in the internal environment of another arising out of territorial, religious, cultural and ethnic factors and the easy availability of sophisticated weaponry in international markets. As a result, there has been no let up in tensions and conflicts across the world. This trend is likely to continue atleast in the short and medium terms. New doctrines of interventionism are being applied taking into account the experience of the Gulf War and the on-going RMA.

As a result of globalisation, many aspects of national life which were considered to be within the domain of sovereignty have become subjects of multilateral consideration. This includes the vulnerability of many developing countries on issues such as the politicisation of human rights and increasingly intrusive international regimes which curtail the autonomy of national decision making. There has also been a remarkable growth and influence of non-governmental and other voluntary non-profit organisations. These developments impinge on the sovereignty of nations in a suitable manner.

The emergence of non-state terrorist actors and the rise of their international influence is accelerating. Much of their activity is clandestine and outside the accepted international norms. International and state sponsored terrorism, often motivated by fundamentalist ideologies, backed by secretive but efficient financial networks, use of IT, clandestine access to chemical-biological and nuclear materials, and illicit drug trafficking have emerged as a major threat to international stability. They pose threats to multi-religious, multi-ethnic and pluralistic societies. India is at the receiving end of these violent elements and is likely to remain a target of international terrorism. Strategies need to be evolved to counter the threat from weapons of mass destruction (WMD), terrorism as well as cyber-terrorism, the latter especially against infrastructural and economic assets such as banking, power, water and transportation sectors.

Since independence, five wars have been imposed on us-four by Pakistan and one by China. Many of the insurgencies faced by India have been fuelled or drawn sustenance from abroad.

The rapid economic growth of China in the last few years coupled with its ambitious military modernisation programme will enable it to attain near superpower status by 2020. Special note must be taken of China’s wide-ranging defence modernisation with a special focus on force multipliers and high technology weapon systems.

Pakistan will continue to pose a threat to India’s security in the future also. Its traditional hostility and single-minded aim of destabilising India is not focussed just on Kashmir but on a search for parity. This arises out of the two nation theory coupled with a desire to exact revenge for the 1971 humiliation over the separation of Bangladesh. This has been accentuated by the Kargil war of 1999.

Pakistan has been waging a proxy war against India since the 1980s. Since the Kargil war and the military coup of October 12, 1999 Pakistan’s support to cross-border terrorism has intensified and is expected to continue in the future. The rapid growth of Islamic fundamentalism in Pakistan is also of serious concern to India.

Through its nexus with Taliban and Jehadi elements as well as its involvement in religious extremism, international terrorism and the narcotics trade, Pakistan poses a threat not only to India but to the stability of the region as well. Hence, attempts to make Pakistan conform to international value system and norms of behaviour is a problem. As a result of Pakistan’s political and economic instability, its military regime may act irrationally, particularly in view of its propensity to function through terrorist outfits.

Pakistan’s weapons acquisitions from the West and China and its close collaboration with China and North Korea on nuclear and missile matters, will continue to be of grave concern to India. Pakistan will continue to seek further enhancement in the quality of its weapons to attempt to offset its conventional quantitative military inferiority vis-a-vis India. China can continue to make both hardware and technology available to Pakistan to offset the latter’s domestic weakness.

Pakistan believes that nuclear weapons can compensate for conventional military inferiority; its leaders have not concealed their desire to use nuclear weapons against India. General Musharraf’s proclaimed desire to talk to India rings hollow against the backdrop of continuing Pakistani support for militants and his unremitting obsession with Kashmir. Pakistan is following the policy of "bleeding India through a thousand cuts". Hence, India will have to be very cautious while adopting the policies dealing with the security of the nation which is the paramount concern of every citizen.